WILAYAH NEWS VOICE OF THE GLOBAL AWAKENING
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Yes. If we assume a hypothetical scenario in which the United States is forced to evacuate its military bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Iraq successively,
then this would constitute a very significant strategic transformation, but it would not automatically mean that the United States had left the Middle East. More importantly, this scenario is not entirely theoretical: current reports discuss pressures and negotiations related to the presence of U.S. forces,
while Iran says that keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed is linked to conditions that include ending U.S. military activity in the region.
1. Bahrain: Loss of the Fifth Fleet Headquarters
Bahrain is the most sensitive maritime link. The U.S. naval presence there is closely associated with the Fifth Fleet headquarters and maritime operations in the Gulf.
If the United States withdrew from Bahrain, it would lose:
- An advanced naval command center very close to the Strait of Hormuz.
- A significant part of its ability to monitor the Gulf.
- Logistics infrastructure that allows U.S. ships to remain in the region for extended periods.
The result: The U.S. Navy would have to operate from more distant locations, such as the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean.
2. Qatar: Loss of the Air Power Hub
A U.S. withdrawal from Al Udeid would mean losing one of the most important American airpower bases in the region. Al Udeid serves as a major hub for U.S. air operations and command functions in the Middle East.
The impact here would differ from Bahrain:
Bahrain = a naval blow.
Qatar = an airpower and command blow.
The United States would need to distribute aircraft and command capabilities among a larger number of bases outside the Gulf.
3. Kuwait: Loss of Strategic Ground Depth
Kuwait is particularly important for deployment, logistics, and ground forces.
If U.S. forces withdrew from Kuwait, Washington would find it much more difficult to use the Gulf as a platform for a major ground operation against Iran.
This reveals an important strategic consequence: the more bases the United States loses in the Gulf, the more Iran shifts from being a country facing a heavily deployed American force surrounding it to one confronting an American force operating from greater distances.
4. United Arab Emirates: Loss of Another Forward Base
The UAE is important for American air, naval, and logistical capabilities.
However, a U.S. withdrawal from the UAE would be less consequential than losing Bahrain and Qatar in terms of central command capabilities. Washington could therefore compensate for part of the loss by relocating forces to other locations.
5. Iraq: Loss of Strategic Land Depth
A U.S. withdrawal from Iraq would have major political and strategic consequences because it would mean the United States no longer had the same kind of land depth close to Iran.
This would alter the strategic map:
Iraq → Kuwait → Bahrain → Qatar → UAE
If the United States lost this chain of forward positions, it would effectively lose much of its advanced deployment network inside the Gulf.
This is broadly consistent with previous assessments of the U.S. military presence, which have identified Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE as four of the core pillars of the American military presence in the Gulf.
What happens next?
This is where the issue becomes more important than simply saying, “America withdrew.”
Iran would become the strongest geographically positioned military power in the Gulf.
However, we must distinguish between:
control of the Strait
and
control of the entire Gulf.
Iran having a significant ability to control maritime traffic through Hormuz does not mean it could prevent an American naval force from approaching from the Arabian Sea or the Indian Ocean.
Oman Becomes More Important
If the United States withdrew from the Gulf, Oman would become enormously more important because of its location outside the Gulf and its proximity to the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz.
Muscat could become a major security and political intermediary between Iran, the United States, and the Gulf states.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia would become the most important Gulf state for the United States.
If American bases remained in Saudi Arabia, or Washington retained the ability to use them, the United States would become more dependent on Saudi territory.
But if the scenario eventually expanded to include Saudi Arabia as well, the transformation would be far greater.
In that case, the United States would effectively shift from:
the Gulf → to the outer Gulf and the Arabian Sea.
What Would the Gulf States Do?
I believe the greatest consequence would be the rebuilding of Gulf security on a regional basis.
Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE could no longer simply rely on the old American security umbrella.
They would need to:
- Strengthen air and missile defenses.
- Develop their naval forces.
- Increase Gulf-wide coordination.
- Open direct security channels with Iran.
- Possibly establish new security arrangements with China, Russia, and other countries.
This is particularly important because the Gulf states themselves have been subjected to attacks during the current crisis, making complete reliance on American protection a subject of growing debate.
The Major Outcome
If the U.S. withdrawal occurred gradually and was driven by Washington’s inability to maintain its bases, the result would be more than a military withdrawal.
It would represent a transition from:
the American security order in the Gulf
to:
a multipolar regional security system, in which Iran becomes the primary geographic and military power in the Gulf, while the United States remains an external power capable of intervening from outside the region.
However, I do not believe Washington would simply say:
“We have lost the Gulf, so we will leave.”
It would more likely do something more strategic: withdraw forces from positions that had become too costly and dangerous, relocate them to more distant and safer locations, while retaining the ability to return and intervene when necessary.
This is precisely what makes Hormuz more important than merely an oil route.
If Iran becomes capable of imposing rules governing passage through Hormuz while U.S. forces can no longer operate from bases close to the Strait, the balance of power in the Gulf would change—even if the United States remained a global military power.
And currently, as of August 11, 2026, the Iranian position being publicly stated is more hard-line: Tehran is linking the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to conditions that include ending U.S. military activity in the region. This makes the issue of the military bases a direct part of the negotiations, rather than simply a separate military matter.