WILAYAH NEWS VOICE OF THE GLOBAL AWAKENING
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How Can the Escalation in the War Between Iran and the United States Be Assessed?
If we assess the escalation as it stands on September 10, 2026, I believe it has entered a very dangerous phase, going beyond a mere proxy war or economic war. The most important development is the shift of the center of gravity toward the sea, maritime navigation, and the Strait of Hormuz.
My assessment of the escalation: 9/10
1. From a War of Attrition to a Direct Maritime Confrontation
In recent days, Iran has targeted ships near the Strait of Hormuz, while the United States announced the destruction of five Iranian tankers. Reuters describes the latest round as the largest wave of reciprocal attacks on shipping since the beginning of the war.
This is extremely significant because targeting ships means that both sides have begun increasing the cost of continuing the war for the other side, rather than limiting themselves to striking targets on land.
2. Hormuz Has Become the Center of the Battle
Ship traffic through the strait fell to only seven vessels in a single day, and no liquefied natural gas carrier passed through on that day.
Iran also announced a maritime “restricted/forbidden” area extending beyond the strait, and said that vessels entering it without coordination could face Iranian action.
Here, I believe the issue has gone beyond simply closing the Strait of Hormuz and has become an attempt to impose a new system of control over maritime navigation.
3. The Most Dangerous Development: Targeting U.S. Warships
There are reports of repeated Iranian attempts to strike U.S. warships with ballistic missiles, some of which were described as having come “very close” to hitting their targets.
In response, the U.S. military leadership says that no American ships were hit and that the Iranian attacks failed.
However, even if the ships were not hit, the mere fact that Iran has moved toward directly attacking U.S. naval vessels significantly raises the level of risk.
4. Even More Dangerous: The Expansion of the War to the Bab el-Mandeb
The Houthis’ seizure of Mokha opens a second front around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea, at the same time as the Hormuz crisis.
This means that Iran and its allies, directly or indirectly, could exert pressure on two strategic maritime corridors:
Hormuz → The Gulf and oil exports
Bab el-Mandeb → The Red Sea and the Suez Canal
This particular development makes the current escalation more dangerous than the previous stages.
5. The Economic Indicator Is Beginning to Appear Strongly
Brent crude oil rose above $100 per barrel and increased by more than 6% today in one trading session, amid growing concerns over Hormuz and the Red Sea.
This means that the war is no longer merely an Iranian-American military problem; it is beginning to turn into a global crisis involving energy, trade, and maritime navigation.
Conclusion
I believe the war is now unfolding on three overlapping levels:
First level: Iran ↔ United States
Direct strikes and military attrition.
Second level: Iran ↔ International Shipping
An attempt to impose a new reality in the Strait of Hormuz.
Third level: Hormuz ↔ Bab el-Mandeb
The expansion of the conflict to the Red Sea, Mokha, and the Houthis.
Therefore, Houthi control of Mokha is not entirely a separate event from the Hormuz crisis; it means that pressure on maritime navigation could also extend from the Gulf to the Red Sea.
The most important question now is not: Will the war continue? Rather: Can Iran and the United States keep the confrontation confined to a war at sea, or will it move toward strikes on military bases and oil facilities inside the Gulf states? If the second scenario occurs, I would consider the war to have entered a new and far more dangerous phase of strategic escalation.