How long will the calm between the US and Iran last? Should we expect a major war?

Related Articles

Iran’s positions remain firm; regarding the Strait of Hormuz, it states that the situation will not return to the way it was before.

27 minutes ago

Trump: Iran Should Raise Flag of Surrender, We’ll Bomb Oman If It Gets in the Way

3 days ago

Consequences of the Closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb: Paralysis in Energy Markets and a Victory for the Yemeni People’s Cause (Mazloumiyya)

2 weeks ago

There is relative calm on some fronts, but it is neither strategic calm nor peace.

The temporary agreement has effectively collapsed, and the 60-day deadline expired without a new agreement, while Washington says that no negotiations are currently scheduled.

More importantly, current indicators point toward the possibility of another round of escalation:

• Iran has threatened to shift to a “fully offensive” posture if diplomacy fails, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
• Trump is applying economic pressure and threatening to escalate efforts to control Hormuz, while there are currently no publicly announced direct negotiations.
• Tanker traffic through Hormuz remains disrupted, and oil prices have risen to their highest levels since July, suggesting that the markets do not consider the crisis over.
• Reports have emerged that Iran is preparing options to target U.S. interests and military bases outside the Middle East if the conflict expands. If confirmed, this would be an extremely dangerous development.

Should we expect a major war?

Yes, the possibility of a major round of fighting exists, but I do not believe that a full-scale war is the only scenario, or even an inevitable one.

In my assessment, there are three most likely scenarios:

1. Limited escalation followed by negotiations — approximately 45%

Reciprocal strikes, attacks on bases or ships, pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, followed by intervention by mediators such as Oman or Pakistan to reopen a channel for negotiations.

2. A major military confrontation — approximately 40%

If the United States attempts to impose a solution by force in Hormuz or launches major attacks against Iranian targets, Iran could respond with extensive strikes against U.S. bases and maritime interests in the region. At that point, events could escalate rapidly and become difficult to contain.

3. A broad regional war — approximately 15%

This would be the most dangerous scenario: direct involvement by Israel or Gulf states, expansion of attacks into Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, and a large-scale effective closure of Hormuz. The economic and military costs would be enormous for everyone.

The important paradox is that the greater the risk of war becomes, the stronger the incentives for both sides not to actually cross that threshold.

The United States faces problems involving munitions and air-defense capacity after the heavy expenditure during the war, while Iran faces economic pressure, sanctions, and disruption to its exports. U.S. reports have already pointed to the depletion of stocks of long-range missiles and defensive interceptors.

Therefore, I believe the coming weeks are too dangerous to describe simply as a period of calm. We are facing an armed calm that could erupt, and the most likely trigger may not necessarily be a strike inside Iran, but rather a major incident in the Strait of Hormuz or an attack on a U.S. base resulting in a large number of American casualties.