The Strait of Hormuz is pivotal to trade, energy, and infrastructure—but what lies ahead?
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The Strait of Hormuz is pivotal to trade, energy, and infrastructure—but what lies ahead?
Haydari Nazar
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And if we want to view the Strait of Hormuz as an integrated strategic system, rather than merely a maritime passage, I believe its importance consists of several layers, some of which are less well known than oil and trade.
1. Energy
This is the best-known layer: crude oil, petroleum products, and liquefied natural gas. In the first half of 2025, around 20.9 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum liquids passed through Hormuz, equivalent to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.
2. Maritime trade
The Strait is not merely an “oil passage”; it is the gateway for maritime movement between the Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea. Cargo ships, container vessels, raw materials, and other types of vessels therefore pass through it.
3. Digital infrastructure
This layer, which you pointed out earlier, is extremely important: submarine communications cables.
Submarine cables carry more than 99% of international data traffic and support communications, the financial sector, cloud computing, and government communications.
For this reason, the seabed of Hormuz can be viewed as part of the Gulf states’ digital infrastructure.
4. Military security
This is where the importance of Hormuz begins to shift from being merely “economic” to becoming geopolitical and military.
The Strait is the gateway through which naval forces based in the Gulf can reach the Indian Ocean. Therefore, control over freedom of movement through it affects:
Naval forces.
Aircraft carriers and their escort ships.
Supply vessels.
Surveillance and reconnaissance operations.
Coastal and air-defense systems.
The security of military bases located in the Gulf.
This makes Hormuz a military gateway as much as it is a commercial one.
5. Strategic communications
There is a difference between commercial Internet traffic and government, military, and strategic communications.
Even when there is no publicly acknowledged military cable in a particular area, disruption of communications infrastructure can indirectly affect the functioning of government institutions, the economy, and command-and-control systems.
This is one reason submarine cables are considered critical infrastructure worldwide.
6. Food security and essential goods
This is a layer that does not receive enough attention.
Gulf states rely heavily on imports to meet their food and consumer-goods needs. Therefore, disruption to maritime traffic does not only mean higher oil prices; it can also affect:
Food → animal feed → fertilizers → industrial materials → consumer goods.
In other words, the impact of Hormuz can reach the economic and social security of the Gulf states.
7. Water and domestic energy security
This is extremely important for the Gulf states.
Most countries in the region rely heavily, to varying degrees, on seawater desalination. Desalination plants require energy, materials, equipment, and spare parts, and some of these facilities are located near the coast.
Therefore, maintaining the security of navigation and energy supplies in the Gulf is also indirectly linked to water security.
Most importantly: there is an eighth layer.
This is the one I believe will become increasingly important in the future:
Political influence and sovereignty over maritime traffic
This is directly connected to what you were saying about Iran’s position.
If Hormuz shifts from the concept of:
“An open international passage where navigation operates according to the usual system”
to:
“An open strategic passage, but one operating under security arrangements and procedures determined by the coastal states,”
then the value of the Strait changes fundamentally.
At that point, the ability to permit, restrict, inspect, regulate traffic, and determine risks itself becomes a political tool.
This is not merely a theoretical scenario; even economically, the 2026 crisis demonstrated that simply increasing the risks associated with passage and insurance can raise transportation costs to historic levels, even before considering permanent closure.
Therefore, Hormuz can be summarized by this equation:
Hormuz = Energy
+ Trade + Communications + Infrastructure + Military Security + Food Security + Water Security + Political Influence.
This is precisely why I believe the statement “Hormuz will not return to its previous status,” if it means redefining the rules governing passage and security control, is far more significant and broader than merely threatening to close the Strait.
Control over Hormuz does not necessarily mean closing it; sometimes it is more powerful when the Strait remains open but under new conditions.
WILAYAH NEWS VOICE OF THE GLOBAL AWAKENING
