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What if the US campaign against Iran were declared a failure — would Iran become the master of the world?
Haidari Nazar
If you mean the scenario in which the United States declares its campaign against Iran a failure, is forced to retreat, or reaches an agreement on terms more favorable to Tehran, that would be an extremely significant geopolitical shift. But I would not say that Iran would literally become the “master of the world.”
Notably, some current analyses do already speak of a decline in America’s ability to impose political outcomes despite military superiority, while other analyses hold that the United States achieved major military successes but did not necessarily achieve its political objectives.
What would happen if American failure were declared?
1. Iran would emerge as a much larger regional power.
If the Iranian state and its system remain intact, if its missile capabilities and regional networks survive, and on top of that the United States withdraws from the war without achieving its objectives, the message to the region’s countries would be:
Iran cannot be toppled or militarily subdued easily, even by American power.
This alone would enormously elevate the value of Iranian deterrence.
2. The Strait of Hormuz would become an exceptional card of Iranian power.
This is perhaps the most important point. If the war ends with a practical recognition that Iran can influence navigation through Hormuz, then Tehran would possess a pressure card that is not merely military but also economically global.
Today’s reports indicate that the proposed negotiations already address the question of who controls the flow of entry and exit through the strait, with an Iranian proposal to obtain transit fees — while the United States opposes granting Iran such a role.
3. The calculations of the Gulf states would change.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman would recalculate their positions.
Not necessarily transforming into allies of Iran, but they would realize that:
Full reliance on the American military umbrella is no longer sufficient to guarantee their security.
This could push them toward more balanced relations with Tehran.
4. The image of American deterrence would be damaged globally.
This may be the greatest consequence for Washington.
If America declares that it entered the war with major objectives and was ultimately forced into a settlement without achieving them, other states would begin to wonder:
If Iran could withstand the United States, can Washington impose its will on us too?
This is where the effects on China, Russia, North Korea, and others appear.
Carnegie, for example, believes that the Iran war has already demonstrated the limits of American military superiority when it is not accompanied by a political vision capable of achieving the desired outcome.
But would Iran become the “master of the world”?
No.
It is more accurate to say that it might become one of the most important powers shaping the new world order.
Because global power is not measured by missiles and war alone. The United States and China, for instance, possess a massive economy, advanced technology, and worldwide financial, commercial, and alliance networks.
Iran does not possess these tools at the same level.
But there is a far more dangerous scenario:
If four Iranian victories came together at once:
- Defeating the American military objective.
- The survival of the Iranian system and its military capabilities.
- Iran securing lasting influence in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Emerging from the war with stronger relations with Russia, China, and the region’s states.
Then the result would not be “Iran as master of the world,” but rather Iran’s transition from a large regional power into an international power with real capacity to influence the global economy and security.
This explains why Hormuz has become a central axis in the current conflict; even some American analyses describe the confrontation as having shifted from a mere comparison of military capabilities into a struggle over the capacity to bear cost, political pressure, and bargaining.
In short:
Iran’s victory over a comprehensive American campaign would not make Tehran rule the world, but it might make the world acknowledge that the United States can no longer single-handedly impose the rules of the international order as it once did.
And that, in itself, would be a historic victory for Iran and a major change in the global balance of power.
