WILAYAH NEWS VOICE OF THE GLOBAL AWAKENING
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Haydari Nazar
22
If you mean a scenario in which the United States declares its campaign against Iran a failure and is forced either to withdraw or to reach an agreement on terms more favorable to Tehran, that would be a very major geopolitical shift. However, I would not say that Iran would literally become the “ruler of the world.”
What is noteworthy is that some current analyses are already discussing a decline in America’s ability to impose political outcomes despite its military superiority, while other analyses argue that the United States has achieved major military successes but has not necessarily achieved its political objectives.
What would happen if the United States declared the campaign a failure?
1. Iran would emerge as a much stronger regional power
If the Iranian state and its system of government remained intact, its missile capabilities and regional networks survived, and, on top of that, the United States left the war without achieving its objectives, the message to the countries of the region would be:
Iran cannot easily be overthrown or militarily subdued, even by American power.
That alone would dramatically increase the value of Iran’s deterrence.
2. The Strait of Hormuz would become an exceptional source of Iranian leverage
This may be the most important point. If the war ended with a practical acknowledgment that Iran could influence maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran would possess a source of leverage that is not merely military, but globally economic.
Reports today indicate that the negotiations under discussion are indeed addressing the question of who controls the movement of vessels entering and leaving the strait, with an Iranian proposal for transit fees. The United States opposes granting Iran such a role.
3. The Gulf states would reconsider their calculations
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman would reassess their positions.
This would not necessarily mean that they would become allies of Iran, but they would recognize that:
Complete reliance on the American military umbrella is no longer sufficient to guarantee their security.
This could push them toward more balanced relations with Tehran.
4. America’s image of deterrence would suffer globally
This could perhaps be the biggest consequence for Washington.
If the United States announced that it had entered the war with major objectives and ultimately had to reach a settlement without achieving them, other countries would begin asking:
If Iran was able to withstand the United States, can Washington impose its will on us?
This would have implications for China, Russia, North Korea, and others.
Carnegie, for example, argues that the Iran war has already demonstrated the limits of American military superiority when it is not accompanied by a political strategy capable of achieving the desired outcome.
But would Iran become the “ruler of the world”?
No.
A more accurate description would be that Iran could become one of the most important powers shaping the emerging global order.
Global power is not measured by missiles and warfare alone. The United States and China, for example, possess enormous economies, advanced technology, global financial and trade networks, and worldwide alliances.
Iran does not possess these tools on the same scale.
But there is a much more consequential scenario:
If four Iranian victories occurred simultaneously:
1. The failure of the American military objective.
2. The survival of the Iranian government and its military capabilities.
3. Iran gaining permanent influence over the Strait of Hormuz.
4. Iran emerging from the war with stronger relations with Russia, China, and the countries of the region.
Then the result would not be “Iran ruling the world.” Rather, it would mean Iran moving from being a major regional power to becoming an international power with a real ability to influence global economic and security affairs.
This helps explain why the Strait of Hormuz has become a central issue in the current conflict. Even some American analyses describe the confrontation as having evolved from merely comparing military capabilities into a struggle over the ability to absorb costs, withstand political pressure, and negotiate.
In short:
An Iranian victory over a comprehensive American campaign would not make Tehran the ruler of the world, but it could force the world to recognize that the United States is no longer able, by itself, to impose the rules of the international order as it once did.
That, in itself, would be a historic victory for Iran and a major shift in the global balance of power.