WILAYAH NEWS VOICE OF THE GLOBAL AWAKENING
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Haydari Nazar
33
There is relative calm on some fronts, but it is neither strategic calm nor peace.
The temporary agreement has effectively collapsed, and the 60-day deadline has expired without a new agreement, while Washington says that no negotiations are currently scheduled.
More dangerously, current indicators are pointing toward the possibility of a new round of escalation:
– Iran has threatened to move to an “all-out offensive” posture if diplomacy fails, particularly over the Strait of Hormuz.
– Trump is applying economic pressure and threatening to escalate efforts to control Hormuz, while there are currently no publicly announced direct negotiations.
– Tanker traffic through Hormuz remains disrupted, and oil prices have risen to their highest levels since July, indicating that markets do not consider the crisis to be over.
– Reports have emerged that Iran is preparing options to target U.S. interests and bases outside the Middle East if the conflict expands. If confirmed, this would be an extremely dangerous development.
Should we expect a major war?
Yes, the possibility of a major round of fighting exists, but I do not see a full-scale war as the only scenario, or even as an inevitable one.
In my view, the most likely outcome is one of three scenarios:
1. Limited escalation followed by negotiations — approximately 45%
Reciprocal strikes, attacks on bases or ships, pressure on Hormuz, followed by the intervention of mediators such as Oman or Pakistan to reopen a channel for negotiations.
2. A major military round — approximately 40%
If the United States attempts to impose a solution by force in Hormuz or strikes major Iranian targets, Iran could respond with widespread attacks on U.S. bases and maritime interests in the region. At that point, events could escalate rapidly.
3. A broad regional war — approximately 15%
This is the most dangerous possibility: Israel or Gulf states becoming directly involved, attacks expanding into Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, and a widespread effective closure of Hormuz. The economic and military costs of such a scenario would be enormous for everyone.
The important paradox is this: the greater the risk of war becomes, the greater the incentive for both sides to avoid it.
The United States is facing a problem with ammunition and air-defense capabilities after the heavy expenditure during the war, while Iran is facing economic pressure, sanctions, and disruption to its exports. U.S. reports have already pointed to the depletion of stocks of long-range missiles and defensive interceptors.
Therefore, I believe the coming weeks are too dangerous to be described as a period of calm. We are facing an armed calm that could explode at any moment. The biggest potential spark may not necessarily be a strike inside Iran, but rather a major incident in the Strait of Hormuz or an attack on a U.S. base resulting in a large number of American casualties.