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Haydari Nazar
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Home / Reports / The Balance of Power in the Persian Gulf After America’s Withdrawal
The Balance of Power in the Persian Gulf After America’s Withdrawal
3 weeks ago — Reports — 42 views
𝑯𝒂𝒚𝒅𝒂𝒓𝒊 𝑵𝒂𝒛𝒂𝒓
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Saudi Arabia has:
– Vast geographical territory.
– Financial power.
– Massive oil production.
– Military capabilities greater than those of most Gulf states.
– Relatively alternative oil-export routes that do not depend on the Strait of Hormuz.
This last point is very important:
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some oil-export routes that do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz, although their alternative capacity is limited compared with the overall volume of Gulf production.
Therefore, Saudi Arabia could become the main Arab pole in the new system.
But what happens to the Strait of Hormuz?
Here, I believe the picture will be different from the idea that “Iran can open and close the strait whenever it wants.”
If the situation stabilizes, an agreement of the following kind could emerge:
Iran guarantees the safety of civilian and commercial navigation
in exchange for:
No American or Israeli military forces or warships being present inside the Gulf.
This is close to the essence of Iran’s currently declared position. An Iranian official said on August 11, 2026, that the continuation of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is linked to conditions that include ending U.S. military activity in the region.
However, maintaining a complete closure is not a permanent interest for Iran, because it would also harm Iran’s own energy exports and put pressure on the regional economy.
Who will be the “first power”?
If you force me to rank the powers in the Gulf by the end of 2030, within this hypothetical scenario:
Position| Power| Type of Power
1| Iran| Military / Geographical
2| Saudi Arabia / Gulf Coalition| Financial / Economic / Military
3| China| Economic / Commercial / Political Influence
4| Russia| Military / Political
5| Iraq| Geographical / Political
But there is an important paradox:
Iran may be the leading military power, while China may possess the greatest economic influence.
This means that the Gulf will not become “Iranian” in the full sense, but rather multipolar.
The Most Dangerous Scenario for America
The greatest danger for Washington is not losing one base here or another base there.
The real danger is for the following sequence to occur:
– The United States withdraws from its bases.
– Navigation stabilizes without an American military presence.
– Gulf states reach agreements with Iran.
– China enters economically and in terms of security.
– Gulf states become accustomed to the absence of the American security umbrella.
At that point, a future American return would become politically much more difficult, even if the United States remained the world’s strongest military power.
And this is why the Strait of Hormuz is so important:
The issue is not only oil.
It is about who has the ability to establish the rules of security in the Gulf.
At present, the scale of disruption to navigation gives an indication of the importance of the issue:
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to only six vessels on August 10, compared with approximately 130–140 vessels under pre-war conditions.
My Analytical Conclusion
If this scenario actually materializes, the alternative will not simply be:
America → China
Rather, it will be:
– America outside the Gulf
– Iran as a major regional military power
– Saudi Arabia as a major Arab pole
– China as a long-term economic and security partner
– Russia as a military and political partner
– Gulf states moving toward a multilateral security system
In my assessment, this would be the greatest change in the balance of power in the Gulf since Britain’s withdrawal from the region in 1971.