Iraq’s PM Post Puzzle: What’s Making The Crisis Persist?

Alwaght– Over three weeks after the resignation of Iraq’s Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, the crisis surrounding his replacement still unfolds. In the new situation, the crisis has turned into a complex issue in which the positions and considerations of the parliament, president, Federal Supreme Court, and the protestors should be taken into account.

Political twists and turns among president, parliament, and federal supreme court 

Earlier this month, Adel Abdul Mahdi announced that he was stepping down and the parliament accepted his resignation in a December 8 session. Since then, the efforts to form a government took a new turn especially as the grand Shiite cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani called for the rapid government formation process. Since the call, six letters have been exchanged among President Barham Saleh, the lawmakers, and the Federal Supreme Court.

On December 8, Parliament Speaker Mohammad al-Halbousi, referring to the constitution’s article 76, called on President Saleh to name a new PM within 15 days. 10 days later, Saleh wrote to al-Halbousi telling him that while the 15-day deadline is about to end, the majority bloc of the parliament is yet to be determined. In a new letter, al-Halbousi told the president that the majority bloc was presented to him on October 2, 2018, and it was based on this presentation that the president named Abdul Mahdi to form a government. Barham Saleh was not persuaded and sent a letter to the Federal Supreme Court calling it to make clarifications on the status of the parliamentary majority bloc. Meanwhile, Al-Banaa bloc held a meeting with Saleh telling him that there was no need for Supreme Court’s inquiry and that majority bloc is comprised of Fatah and State of Law alliances led by Nouri al-Maliki and Hadi al-Amiri and is qualified to name a new PM.

Federal Court ruling and PM replacement crisis outlook 

Following tensions among various political parties on naming a replacement to Abdul Mahdi, the Federal Court on December 22 held a session to look into the case, ending in a statement in which it said that after consultations and also referring to article 76 of the constitution and the rulings issued regarding similar issues in 2010 and 2014, it concluded that the majority bloc is a bloc that after the elections holds the biggest seats compared to others.

The Court’s ruling that was expected to effectively solve the dispute failed to offer a solution. Hours later, Saleh wrote to al-Halbousi telling him that the “difficult conditions of the country” necessitate precise addressing of the national and legal issues. He called on the members of parliament to determine the majority bloc to name a new PM.

In fact, Saleh’s letter addresses three parties and three letters. First, the Al-Banaa Alliance that is expected to name Qusay al-Suhail, the current minister of higher education and scientific research, for the PM post. Second, the Saeroon Alliance that in a letter named itself the majority bloc but said that it is not going to name a PM and will endorse a candidate accepted by people. Third, a bloc of 174 members of parliament published a statement. They said that the candidates should be independent, not dual nationals, and with no record of work as a minister or member of parliament.

Why Saleh threatened to resign  

In the middle of such a vague and difficult situation, Barham Saleh, who is caught in the crossfire of conflicting interpretations of various parties of majority bloc and cannot make an independent decision easily, reportedly threatened the political parties with resignation. Sources familiar with the issue said that he told the political parties that he was prepared to resign if a popularly-accepted candidate was not presented to fill the seat of PM.

Such remarks by the president could stem from an understanding of the protestor’s opposition to such candidates as Qusay al-Suhail. He knows that if he names a candidate with a record of work as a minister or lawmaker, he will infuriate people and will meet the same fate met by PM Abdul Mahdi. So, Barham Saleh has concluded that he should steer clear of such happening.

With the consideration of the Federal Court’s ruling and the emphasis of Ayatollah al-Sistani on fast forming of a strong government in the country, it seems that the most practical scenario is that the president will accept the demand of the Al-Banaa bloc while other political parties are avoiding to shoulder the responsibility and name a new PM. He may call on al-Suhail or any other candidate named by the bloc to form a government.

What is clear is that Iraq more than any other time needs unity and stability in the current conditions. To this goal, the first step is to name a qualified and powerful replacement to Adel Abdul Mahdi.